── Diligence workbench ──

adagrasib· Mirati Therapeutics

Retrospective backtest. Inputs locked to public information available before the KRYSTAL-12 Phase 3 readout (June 2022 cutoff). This is calibration, not prediction — framework outputs should bracket BMS's actual $4.8B acquisition price for the post-readout (NDA) scenario.

Asset

Asset name

Sponsor

Phase

Therapeutic area

Modality

Mechanism

Target validated by prior approval

Biomarker-enriched trial

Direct competitors in this indication: 1

Regulatory designations

Reflexivity adjustment

×1.00

Sponsor capital position. Well-capitalized sponsors run better trials (larger N, biomarker enrichment, adaptive designs) — a Spence-style costly signal capital-constrained sponsors can't credibly emit.

DistressedConstrainedAdequateWell capitalized

Adequate — runway 12–24 mo. Applied last in the PoS chain. Empirical: Ma 2025 trial-accrual model (AUC 0.74) shows sponsor + protocol features predict structural trial breakdown.

Known limitations

Rare disease (small N)
BIO/Informa rare-disease base rate (~16% from P1) is built on a small population of approvals. Cumulative LOA estimates are noisier for indications with <20 historical approvals.
Platform companies
Single-asset LOA doesn't capture portfolio effects. A platform with 6 correlated programs has a different risk profile than 6 independent shots-on-goal. v2 portfolio view addresses this.
China-origin assets
BIO base rates reflect FDA/EMA cohorts. NMPA development paths differ; cross-jurisdictional risk profiles are not yet modeled. Treat outputs as US/EU-only.
Pre-2018 capital-position data
Reflexivity multipliers are calibrated to post-2018 trial-design and biomarker-enrichment norms. Older comparables may understate the gap between well-capitalized and constrained sponsors.

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Memo Writer · agent

Waiting for PoS / rNPV / scorecard / comparables…

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Waiting for PoS / rNPV / scorecard / comparables…