Methodology
The framework's intellectual foundation. Seven writeups, every empirical claim cited.
Each writeup is also a standalone document; cross-links between them stay within the methodology folder. A senior reader can land on any file and follow the citations from there.
Product thesis — what Asclepius is, what it's becoming, what it's a proof of
Applies The Loom's six-phase product framework (Sense / Envision / Seed / Surface / Evolve / Synthesize) to Asclepius itself. Reframes the project from 'portfolio biotech-valuation tool' to 'first proof point of a method for productizing skill-based AI methodology.'
Probability of Success — the full framework reference
The end-to-end documentation of how Asclepius computes cumulative likelihood of approval. Every multiplier in the chain is cited; every magnitude is grounded in either a peer-reviewed paper or a primary industry source; deviations from the published literature are explicit.
Reflexivity-adjusted Probability of Success
Sponsor capital position structurally adjusts a clinical asset's probability of success. This is the headline methodology choice in Asclepius and the differentiator versus textbook rNPV.
Risk-adjusted NPV — phase-gated cash flows, Monte Carlo priors, and discount conventions
The full mechanics of how Asclepius computes risk-adjusted NPV. Documents the phase-gated cash-flow structure, the four Monte Carlo prior distributions, the mid-year discount convention, and the closed-form-vs-simulation relationship. Every methodology choice is cited or labeled as analytical convention.
8-pillar diligence scorecard — the qualitative overlay on the quantitative core
Documents the 8 pillars Asclepius uses to convert qualitative diligence judgments into a single weighted score and a recommendation tier. Seven pillars are practitioner-standard biotech BD scorecard items; the 8th (computational infrastructure) is the framework's novel contribution. Documents the red-flag auto-cap and green-flag boost mechanics, and consolidates the methodology's Known Limitations.
Worked example — Adagrasib retrospective backtest
Applies the Asclepius framework to adagrasib (Mirati Therapeutics) using only public information available before the KRYSTAL-12 Phase 3 readout (June 2022 cutoff). Framework outputs reconstruct the BMS $4.8B acquisition price (October 2022) within ~5%.
Signaling equilibrium — the formal foundation of the reflexivity adjustment
Derives the reflexivity-adjusted PoS framework from Spence (1973) signaling theory. Maps the costly-signal mechanism onto clinical trial design and cites the modern empirical evidence that strategic-disclosure behavior is operative in the pharmaceutical industry.
07-bayesian-persuasion-disclosure
08-calibration-dashboard
09-ml-pos-prior
10-public-prediction-log
11-portfolio-sizing
How to read the methodology folder
- For framework intuition: read 02-reflexivity-thesis and then 05-worked-example-adagrasib. Together they tell the full story of what the tool is.
- For the formal foundation: read 06-signaling-equilibrium for Spence/Akerlof grounding and 01-pos-framework for the full PoS chain reference.
- For the engine mechanics: read 03-rnpv-monte-carlo and 04-scorecard-pillars. The latter consolidates the framework's Known Limitations.